Asteroid Hit Odds Calculator
What are the chances of an asteroid crashing through your roof? This tongue-in-cheek calculator uses real data to estimate the annual probability of an asteroid strike on your specific property. Based on calculations showing approximately 1 in 2.2 trillion odds for a typical house footprint, you can discover your personal cosmic risk. Spoiler: you probably don't need asteroid insurance.
How We Calculate This
Annual probability = footprint area × strike rate per m² per year. The strike rate (≈3.92e-15) is calibrated from cited odds of 1 in 2.2 trillion for a 116 m² footprint. Results are presented as "1 in X" format.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where do these odds come from?
The calculation is calibrated from a cited example where a 1,250 ft² (116 m²) house footprint has annual odds of 1 in 2,196,269,636,024 of being hit by an asteroid. We derive a per-square-meter rate from this.
Is this a real risk I should worry about?
No! At 1 in trillions per year, an asteroid hitting your specific house is essentially impossible in any human timeframe. You're far more likely to win the lottery multiple times. This calculator is purely for entertainment.
What about larger asteroids hitting Earth generally?
Larger asteroid impacts affecting wide areas are more likely but still rare. NASA tracks near-Earth objects and estimates a civilization-threatening impact happens roughly once every 500,000+ years.
Has a building ever been hit by a meteorite?
Yes! Small meteorites have struck buildings, including the famous Sylacauga meteorite in 1954 that went through a roof and injured Ann Hodges. But these are small fragments, not catastrophic asteroids.
Related Calculators
You might also find these calculators helpful: Square Footage Calculator, and Statistics Calculator.
This calculator is for entertainment purposes only. While based on cited calculations, asteroid impact probability involves many complex factors. Do not use for actual risk assessment or insurance purposes.