Shark Attack Probability Calculator
Shark attacks capture our imagination, but how likely are they really? The International Shark Attack File (ISAF) at the Florida Museum documents all known shark attacks worldwide. This illustrative calculator estimates your personal shark encounter odds based on your ocean activity level. Spoiler: you're more likely to be injured by a vending machine.
How We Calculate This
Base probability derived from ISAF data: ~80 attacks/year globally among millions of ocean users. Activity multipliers adjust for exposure time. P(n years) = 1 - (1-p)^n. Results are illustrative only.
Frequently Asked Questions
How common are shark attacks?
ISAF records about 70-80 unprovoked shark attacks worldwide per year, with 5-10 fatalities. Given billions of ocean swims annually, the per-swim risk is extremely low.
Where do most attacks occur?
The US leads in shark attacks (especially Florida), followed by Australia, South Africa, and Brazil. But these are also places with heavy beach usage and good reporting.
What increases shark attack risk?
Surfing, swimming at dawn/dusk, murky water, areas with fishing activity, wearing shiny jewelry, and swimming near seal colonies all increase encounter probability.
Are shark attacks increasing?
The number of attacks has slowly increased, but this correlates with increased ocean recreation. The per-capita or per-swim rate remains very low and relatively stable.
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You might also find these calculators helpful: Lightning Strike Odds Calculator, and Asteroid Hit Odds Calculator.
This calculator is for entertainment and awareness only. Actual shark attack risk depends heavily on location, time of day, water conditions, and behavior.