Meteorite Strike Chance Calculator
What are the chances of a space rock hitting you or your house? While large asteroid impacts are extremely rare, small meteorites reach Earth's surface daily. This calculator explores your personal meteorite risk using published estimates of about 1 in 250,000 lifetime odds, and separately calculates your house's chances based on its footprint area.
How We Calculate This
Person mode: p_lifetime = 1/250,000, converted to annual and multiplied by exposure factor. House mode: area ratio compared to Earth's land surface scaled by meteorite land-strike rate. All results are illustrative estimates.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has anyone ever been hit by a meteorite?
Yes! Ann Hodges of Alabama was struck by a meteorite in 1954 - the only confirmed case of a human hit by a meteorite. It crashed through her roof and bruised her hip.
Why does being outdoors increase the risk?
Roofs, ceilings, and building structures provide significant protection against smaller meteorites. A typical roof can stop or slow all but the largest fragments. When you're outdoors, you're directly exposed to the full sky - your body's cross-sectional area becomes a "target" with no barrier between you and incoming space debris.
Where does the 1 in 250,000 figure come from?
This is a commonly cited estimate from space risk assessments. The actual calculation depends on many assumptions about meteorite size, frequency, and human exposure.
How many meteorites hit Earth daily?
About 44 tonnes of meteoric material falls on Earth daily, but most is dust. An estimated 17 meteorites reach Earth's surface per day, mostly falling in oceans or unpopulated areas.
What about larger asteroid impacts?
Civilization-threatening impacts (like the dinosaur-killer) occur roughly every 100 million years. City-destroying impacts like Tunguska (1908) happen every few hundred years.
Related Calculators
You might also find these calculators helpful: Asteroid Hit Odds Calculator, and Lightning Strike Odds Calculator.
These calculations are illustrative estimates for entertainment. Actual meteorite strike probability is highly uncertain and depends on many factors not modeled here.