Casino Expected Loss Calculator
Example: Blackjack €25 × 60 hands = €7.50 expected loss
Every casino game has a built-in house edge that produces long-term profits for the casino. Select a game to see its return-to-player (RTP) percentage, then enter your typical bet size and session length. The calculator estimates your hourly loss, risk of going bust, and chance of finishing a session ahead.
Expected bankroll over the session
House Edge
The casino's mathematical advantage
Total Expected Loss
Expected loss for your full session
Expected Loss Per Hour
Average hourly loss at your pace
Risk of Ruin (Bust Probability)
Chance of losing your entire bankroll
Chance of 2× Bankroll
Probability of doubling your money
How We Calculate This
Expected Loss = House Edge × Bet Amount × Number of Bets. House Edge = 100% - RTP. Risk of ruin and win probabilities use statistical models accounting for variance and the random walk nature of gambling outcomes. Volatility factors vary by game type.
Methodology last reviewed: May 2024. How SparkCalc works
Frequently Asked Questions
What is RTP (Return to Player)?
RTP is the percentage of all wagered money a game pays back over time. If a game has 97% RTP, for every €100 wagered, €97 is returned to players on average. The remaining 3% is the house edge - the casino's profit margin.
Why do I still sometimes win if the house always has an edge?
Short-term variance (luck) causes results to swing above and below the expected value. You might win in a session, even a long one. But over thousands of bets, results converge toward the mathematical expectation. The house edge ensures the casino profits over millions of bets across all players.
What affects my actual results besides RTP?
Volatility (variance) is huge. Slots have high volatility - big wins are rare but possible. Blackjack has low volatility - wins and losses are smaller but more consistent. High volatility means wilder swings and better chances of multiplying your bankroll, but also faster bust potential.
Which casino game has the best odds?
Blackjack with perfect basic strategy (0.4-0.5% house edge), followed by certain video poker machines (under 1%), craps pass/don't pass (1.4%), and baccarat banker bet (1.06%). Avoid keno (25%+ edge), Big Six wheel (15%+ edge), and low-RTP slots.
Is card counting illegal?
Card counting is not illegal, but casinos can and will ban you if they suspect you're counting. The practice is only effective in blackjack and can shift the edge slightly in the player's favor, which is why casinos discourage it.
Related Calculators
You might also find these calculators helpful: Betting Odds Calculator, Compound Interest Calculator, and Lost Socks Probability Calculator.
Embed this calculator
Add this free calculator to your own website. Copy the code below and paste it into your page’s HTML. It is responsive and resizes to fit.
Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. These calculations show mathematical expectations, not guaranteed outcomes. Never gamble with money you cannot afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, seek help at organizations like Gamblers Anonymous.